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Abdul Nabi, M and El-adaway, I H (2021) Risk-Based Approach to Predict the Cost Performance of Modularization in Construction Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(10).
Ahmed, M O, Khalef, R, Ali, G G and El-adaway, I H (2021) Evaluating Deterioration of Tunnels Using Computational Machine Learning Algorithms. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(10).
Baker, M, Ali, M and French, E (2021) Leadership Diversity and Its Influence on Equality Initiatives and Performance: Insights for Construction Management. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(10).
Cruz Rios, F, Grau, D and Bilec, M (2021) Barriers and Enablers to Circular Building Design in the US: An Empirical Study. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(10).
Gharouni Jafari, K and Noorzai, E (2021) Selecting the Most Appropriate Project Manager to Improve the Performance of the Occupational Groups in Road Construction Projects in Warm Regions. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(10).
Grau, D, Cruz Rios, F and Sherman, R (2021) Project Validation: A Set-Based and Concurrent Design Approach to Inform Owner’s Authorization Decision on Complex Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(10).
Haronian, E and Sacks, R (2021) Production Control in Earthworks: Concepts and Metrics. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(10).
He, W, Li, W, Xu, S, Wang, W and An, X (2021) Time, Cost, and Energy Consumption Analysis on Construction Optimization in High-Rise Buildings. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(10).
Hijazi, A A, Perera, S, Calheiros, R N and Alashwal, A (2021) Rationale for the Integration of BIM and Blockchain for the Construction Supply Chain Data Delivery: A Systematic Literature Review and Validation through Focus Group. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(10).
Hong, Y, Xie, H, Bhumbra, G and Brilakis, I (2021) Comparing Natural Language Processing Methods to Cluster Construction Schedules. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(10).
Jang, Y, Kim, K, Leite, F, Ayer, S and Cho, Y K (2021) Identifying the Perception Differences of Emerging Construction-Related Technologies between Industry and Academia to Enable High Levels of Collaboration. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(10).
Kim, J, Kamari, M, Lee, S and Ham, Y (2021) Large-Scale Visual Data–Driven Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Utility Poles Regarding the Vulnerability of Power Distribution Infrastructure Systems. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(10).
Kim, J, Shan, Y, Kim, S, Song, D, Park, H and Bang, C (2021) Factors Influencing Fire Safety on Building Construction Sites: A Fire Officer’s Perspective. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(10).
Koc, K and Okudan, O (2021) Assessment of Life Cycle Risks of Deconstruction in Urban Regeneration Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(10).
Le, C, Jeong, H D and Damnjanovic, I (2021) Network Theory–Driven Construction Logic Knowledge Network: Process Modeling and Application in Highway Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(10).
Li, M and Ashuri, B (2021) Proportional Cox Hazards Model to Quantify the Likelihood of Underestimation in Transportation Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(10).
- Type: Journal Article
- Keywords: Owner’s (engineer’s) estimate; Bidding analysis; Cox regression; Survival analysis;
- ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
- URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0002164
- Abstract:
Preparing accurate cost estimates for highway projects always has been challenging for transportation agencies. It is a common problem that the lowest submitted bid significantly deviates from owner’s estimate. This might result in project delay or cancellation, budget pressure, and cost overrun, which are problematic for both owner organizations and highway contractors. There is a need to enhance understanding of transportation agencies about the likelihood of underestimation. This research assessed relations of several potential drivers to explain and forecast the likelihood of underestimation. This research for the first time used concepts and methods from survival analysis and applied them into construction bidding process. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was developed which is capable of examining significance of variables representing characteristics of project, bidder, and external (environmental) market, and using them to predict the likelihood of underestimation in transportation projects. The results showed that number of bidders, number of pay items, total number of projects awarded in the same month at state level, project types, producer price index for construction machinery manufacturing, value of construction put in place for commercial, unemployment, and highly active contractors are significant drivers of likelihood of underestimation. This research contributes to the state of knowledge in construction bidding analysis by identifying drivers of the likelihood of underestimation and creating a Cox model to explain and predict the likelihood of underestimation using information available from the identified drivers. It is anticipated that the results will help transportation agencies better understand the extent of risk of deviation between low bids and owner’s estimates, prepare more-accurate cost estimates and budgets, and develop appropriate risk mitigation strategies for successful project delivery.
Liang, C, Wang, X, Kamat, V R and Menassa, C C (2021) Human–Robot Collaboration in Construction: Classification and Research Trends. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(10).
Lu, W, Wu, L, Zhao, R, Li, X and Xue, F (2021) Blockchain Technology for Governmental Supervision of Construction Work: Learning from Digital Currency Electronic Payment Systems. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(10).
Lu, Y and Zhu, Y (2021) Integrating Hoisting Efficiency into Construction Site Layout Plan Model for Prefabricated Construction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(10).
Oguz Erkal, E D, Hallowell, M R and Bhandari, S (2021) Practical Assessment of Potential Predictors of Serious Injuries and Fatalities in Construction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(10).
Pirzadeh, P, Lingard, H and Blismas, N (2021) Design Decisions and Interactions: A Sociotechnical Network Perspective. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(10).
Pons, O, Casanovas-Rubio, M M, Armengou, J and de la Fuente, A (2021) Sustainability-Driven Decision-Making Model: Case Study of Fiber-Reinforced Concrete Foundation Piles. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(10).
Pushpakumara, B H J and Thusitha, G A (2021) Development of a Structural Health Monitoring Tool for Underwater Concrete Structures. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(10).
Sadeh, H, Mirarchi, C and Pavan, A (2021) Integrated Approach to Construction Risk Management: Cost Implications. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(10).
Sezer, A A, Thunberg, M and Wernicke, B (2021) Digitalization Index: Developing a Model for Assessing the Degree of Digitalization of Construction Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(10).
Shin, S and Issa, R R A (2021) BIMASR: Framework for Voice-Based BIM Information Retrieval. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(10).
Shoaib Khan, M, Kim, J, Park, S, Lee, S and Seo, J (2021) Methodology for Voxel-Based Earthwork Modeling. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(10).
Wu, K and García de Soto, B (2021) Lifting Sequence Optimization of Luffing Tower Cranes Considering Motion Paths with Dynamic Programming. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(10).
Xiang, Z, Rashidi, A and Ou, G (2021) Automated Framework to Translate Rebar Spatial Information from GPR into BIM. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(10).
Yoon, Y and GangaRao, H (2021) Prioritization Framework for Rockfall Countermeasures for Rock-Cut Slopes for Rural Roads. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(10).
Zhao, D, Duva, M, Mollaoglu, S, Frank, K, Garcia, A and Tait, J (2021) Integrative Collaboration in Fragmented Project Organizations: Network Perspective. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(10).